Geopolitical risk: a live case study
Swapan returned to the floor for one of the meeting's most commercially resonant sessions, addressing the evolving geopolitical and security risk landscape. In addition to covering key developments across trade routes, port operations and vessel safety, he emphasised the importance of risk preparedness in connection with the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Setting out the wider context, he described a scenario of severe energy-market dislocation: Gulf oil exports sharply curtailed, the Ras Laffan LNG facility — accounting for around 17% of global LNG — facing weeks of repair, and tankers repositioning to alternative trades on timelines stretching to 90 days. The point for container operators, he stressed, is that the knock-on effects reach far beyond the tanker sector: bunker price volatility, port congestion at alternative routing endpoints, recession-driven demand destruction and insurance costs passed through to every trade.
Expanding on the implications for CSSF members, Swapan distinguished three levels of response. Operationally, route planning must assume both chokepoints could be closed for months, with bunker strategy under extreme volatility and heightened GNSS interference preparedness, particularly near Fujairah and the Red Sea. At boardroom level, the strategic exposure is significant: war risk premiums can move from 0.2% to 0.5% within days, accumulation risk compounds rapidly if multiple vessels are trapped, and sanctions compliance in one jurisdiction can create risk in another. He urged members to engage hull and machinery and P&I clubs early, noting that terms were changing weekly. For crews, the message was equally direct — welfare directly affects retention and recruitment, and seafarers increasingly choose employers based on how they respond in a crisis.
On planning horizons, his guidance was to prepare for months, not weeks. Realistic timelines pointed to little change in the near term, a best-case partial reopening only after a ceasefire, and meaningful commercial transit resumption potentially three to six months out. He closed with a call for collective action: as individual operators, investing in security infrastructure and ensuring risk intelligence reaches decision-makers in hours rather than days; and as a forum, sharing best practices on crew welfare during prolonged stranding, coordinating with bodies such as INTERTANKO, INTERCARGO and ICS on transit guidance, and advocating to flag states and the IMO for seafarer protection. “A collective voice carries more weight,” was the underlying message — and a clear statement of where the CSSF can add value beyond any single company's reach.
Turning to the subject of mooring, Thomas Caradec, Product Management, Planning Director of Mooring Solutions at Wilhelmsen Ships Service highlighted inconsistent certification practices and misleading claims in the mooring industry, arguing that as safer rope designs emerge, independent verification and rigorous standards are essential to protect vessel owners, ports and crews.
Apo Belokas, CEO of Risk4Sea presented PSC trend analysis and crew welfare insights. On the inspection side, he argued that the industry is still reacting rather than managing: PSC performance is typically measured after the event, and traditional indicators provide visibility but little foresight. His proposed answer is a monthly PSC Stress Index for the container segment, which converts existing KPIs into a single forward-looking signal that tracks deviation from normal conditions and flags early deterioration before incidents and detentions occur — a shift, in his words, from reactive compliance to predictive control.
Turning to crew welfare, Apo shared findings from the 2025 SEAFIT survey, which gathered anonymous feedback from 21,775 seafarers across 1,703 ships. The overall wellness index eased to 70.1% from 72.5% in 2024, with communication — above all better internet access on board — remaining seafarers’ top priority, shore leave satisfaction falling below 50%, and support for mental wellbeing flagged as an area needing greater attention. He encouraged members to promote participation in the 2026 edition, which is free to join and provides the industry’s largest dataset on crew welfare.
Paul van’t Hof, Operations Manager, Smit Salvage addressed crew exposure to toxic gases. “As container fires continue with increasingly severe consequences, leading salvage companies like Smit can help reduce crew exposure to fires and toxic gases by providing rapid specialist response, advanced fire and gas monitoring, hazardous-material expertise, enhanced PPE, and crew-focused emergency planning and training. This allows crews to be removed from high-risk environments sooner while improving the effectiveness of incident response,” pointed out Paul.